Market share dynamics

 

The competitive landscape for the LHRHKT route saw notable shifts in 360 day forward booked market share this week, particularly among the major connecting carriers. Etihad Airways maintained its leading position, holding 20.6% of the market. Its steady growth from 19.7% last week suggests that Etihad continues to attract a significant portion of travelers seeking connections through Abu Dhabi.

Emirates made a remarkable leap, increasing its share from 12.2% to 16.7%. This surge positions Emirates as a formidable competitor, benefiting from its strong connecting services through Dubai, which continues to offer an appealing alternative for travelers. This growth reflects the growing competitiveness among Gulf carriers on this route, with both Emirates and Qatar Airways performing strongly.
 

Qatar Airways also posted solid growth, increasing its market share from 8.8% to 10.2%. Its consistent performance, coupled with the cumulative average of 10.7%, signals QR's steady presence on the route, leveraging its Doha hub to capture a loyal segment of the market.
 

Air China emerged as a standout performer, posting a significant rise in market share from 5.3% to 8.0%. This surge positions Air China well above its cumulative average of 2.9%, indicating a growing preference for connections via Beijing. In contrast, Saudia saw a steep decline in market share, dropping from 6.6% to 4.0%, likely reflecting challenges in sustaining demand for its connections via Jeddah.
 

British Airways experienced a slight decline, falling from 9.1% to 8.7%, bringing it below its cumulative average of 14.8%. This drop indicates that BA may be losing ground to more seamless connecting options offered by Gulf carriers. Thai Airways also saw a modest decline, falling from 10.5% to 9.3%, which places it below its cumulative average, signaling potential softening in demand for connections via Bangkok.
 

Overall, the battle among the major Gulf carriers continues to intensify, with Emirates making the most significant gains this week. Looking ahead, the continued growth of these connecting carriers suggests that they may further erode the market share of traditional players like Thai Airways and British Airways. If this trend continues, Emirates and Qatar Airways may continue to dominate the connecting market from Phuket to London Heathrow.

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Overall Pricing Dynamics & Correlation with Market Share

 

Emirates experienced a significant rise in market share this week, climbing to 16.7% from 12.2%. With an average fare of £1,535, Emirates positions itself as a more premium option compared to competitors like Etihad and Qatar Airways. Despite its higher pricing, the airline has managed to capture the lowest fare 9 times this week, suggesting a strategy that balances premium branding with targeted fare offerings for price-sensitive customers. This mixed approach has contributed to Emirates’ ability to gain market share, leveraging its strong brand reputation and attractive connections through Dubai.

Qatar Airways saw its market share rise to 10.2% this week, increasing from 8.8%. With an average fare of £1,302, Qatar Airways positions itself between the premium pricing of Emirates and the more competitively priced Etihad. Despite being the lowest fare only 4 times this week, Qatar's steady market share growth suggests that it appeals to travelers seeking a balance between cost and service quality. The consistent presence of Qatar Airways on the route highlights its ability to attract a loyal customer base through Doha.

Thai Airways’ market share declined to 9.3% this week, down from 10.5%, bringing it below its cumulative average of 11.3%. Despite offering an average fare of £1,187—similar to Etihad’s—Thai Airways appears to face challenges in competing with the stronger Gulf carriers. The decline suggests that factors beyond pricing, such as convenience of connections and service offerings, may be influencing passenger preferences.

Singapore Airlines maintained stable growth this week, with its market share increasing to 6.6%. Its average fare of £1,302 positions it among the higher-priced options on this route, but it benefits from a strong brand reputation and consistent service. While SQ is not the lowest fare provider, its market share stability suggests that a segment of travelers values the quality of the connections through Singapore and is willing to pay a premium for the experience.

Malaysia Airlines holds a 5.6% market share, up slightly from 5.4% last week, with an average fare of £1,130. Positioned as one of the more affordable options among the top carriers, Malaysia Airlines' pricing strategy has helped maintain a steady flow of bookings, particularly appealing to passengers looking for cost-effective connections through Kuala Lumpur.

Cathay Pacific saw its market share rise to 2.1%, up from 0.5% the previous week, despite having a higher average fare of £1,456. The increase suggests that some passengers value Cathay's connection through Hong Kong and are willing to pay a premium for its services. This shift could indicate a niche market for Cathay Pacific, particularly among travelers who prioritize brand familiarity and service over price.

 

Focus on Etihad Airways

Etihad Airways stands out as the leading airline on the LHRHKT route this week, holding a market share of 20.6%, up from 19.7% last week. This positions Etihad well above its cumulative average of 14.6%, reflecting its strong presence and successful market positioning. A key contributor to this performance is Etihad’s strategic fare positioning. With an average fare of £1,187, Etihad is positioned as a mid-range option, offering competitive pricing compared to its peers.
 

Etihad’s frequent presence as the lowest fare provider—being the cheapest option 25 times this week—indicates a deliberate strategy to attract price-sensitive travelers. This approach has allowed Etihad to capture a significant portion of the market, particularly among passengers who prioritize affordability without sacrificing the quality of service. Despite this competitive pricing, the airline’s strong market share suggests that it is attracting a broad customer base, from budget-conscious travelers to those who appreciate its premium brand.
 

Given the current market dynamics, there is potential for Etihad to explore a modest fare increase of around 5% to 7%. This would position its average fare between £1,246 and £1,270, still below Qatar Airways’ average fare of £1,302. Such an adjustment could allow Etihad to capture additional revenue per passenger without significantly impacting its competitive positioning, worth around £556k in additional annual revenue. The key to implementing this adjustment would be a careful, gradual approach that maintains the balance between affordability and perceived value, ensuring that Etihad continues to attract both existing and new customers while monitoring the fare movements of its main competitors.
 

With a strong market share lead, Etihad is well-positioned to test the market’s tolerance for slightly higher fares, providing an opportunity to optimize revenue while maintaining its leadership on the LHRHKT route. By leveraging its current momentum and competitive edge, Etihad can continue to build on its success in this highly competitive market.

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Travel agent opportunities

 

Etihad Airways holds a 21.0% share of new bookings through the travel agency community on the LHRHKT O&D, aligning with its overall market share among agents this week. This position indicates a balanced reliance on travel agent support to maintain its presence on the route. Maintaining stable relationships with key agents is crucial for Etihad, especially those who have shown fluctuating support recently. By identifying where additional focus is needed, Etihad can ensure continued momentum or stabilize areas of decline.

 

Agents to Nurture

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E Travel Online

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Historically, E Travel Online has been a strong partner for Etihad, with a cumulative average share of 21.2%, slightly above Etihad’s overall market share. However, recent weeks have seen a dip, with the current week’s share at 18.6% and the previous week at 13.7%, both below the cumulative average. This shift suggests that while E Travel Online continues to contribute meaningfully to Etihad’s presence, the recent downturn may signal a shift in preferences among their customers. Meanwhile, Emirates has captured 25.0% of E Travel Online’s new bookings this week, indicating that travelers are increasingly choosing Emirates for connections via Dubai. A focused effort to re-engage E Travel Online could help Etihad regain its previous strength with this agent and counterbalance the shift towards competitors like Emirates.

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Agents Requiring Attention

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​Trailfinders

 

Trailfinders has consistently shown a lower level of support for Etihad, with a cumulative average share of 6.2%, well below the airline’s market share among agents. The current week’s share is 6.5%, following a previous week’s share of 14.2%, both significantly below the 21.0% threshold. During this period, Qatar Airways captured 29.0% of Trailfinders’ new bookings, positioning itself as a preferred choice over Etihad. This consistent underperformance suggests that Trailfinders’ customers may be finding better value or preference in other carriers. Addressing these gaps could help Etihad better align with Trailfinders' offerings and potentially draw back share from Qatar Airways. Closing the gap with Trailfinders would be worth around £930k per annum. 

 

Travel Up

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Travel Up has been a challenging agent for Etihad, with a cumulative average share of 3.6%, falling short of the overall market share. This week, Etihad’s share through Travel Up dropped to 0.0%, following a 2.7% share the previous week. During this time, Singapore Airlines secured 35.0% of Travel Up’s bookings, indicating a stronger appeal among Travel Up's customers. The complete drop in new bookings highlights a critical need for re-engagement, suggesting that Travel Up’s focus may have shifted towards competitors. Understanding the reasons behind this shift, such as Singapore Airlines' appeal, could help Etihad re-establish a presence with this agent, and could be worth an additional £82k per annum in incremental revenue

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Gold Medal Travel

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Gold Medal Travel has a cumulative average share of 12.0%, which is below Etihad’s market share of 21.0% among travel agents. Despite an improvement in the current week’s share to 17.4%, the previous week’s share of 9.8% indicates ongoing volatility. Meanwhile, Emirates has a substantial 22.0% share of Gold Medal’s bookings this week, suggesting that its offerings through Dubai continue to resonate with this agent’s clientele. While recent performance has been positive for Etihad, sustaining this upward trend is essential for closing the gap between Gold Medal’s historical support and Etihad’s target levels, particularly against strong competitors like Emirates. If Etihad can do this, it would generate an estimated £251k in additional revenue per annum.

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Aviate Management

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Aviate Management's cumulative average share stands at 7.4%, which is below Etihad’s overall market share among agents. Despite a recent rise to 27.7% this week, the previous week’s share of 20.2% was still below the 21.0% threshold. At the same time, Qatar Airways received 30.0% of Aviate’s new bookings, highlighting a strong preference for connections through Doha. This suggests that while recent efforts have shown promise, there remains a need to stabilize Aviate’s support for Etihad to achieve a more consistent alignment with the airline’s goals, especially in the face of competition from Qatar Airways. Stabilizing this support is valued at an additional £773k in revenue per annum for Etihad.

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Love Holidays

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With a cumulative average share of 10.4%, Love Holidays is below Etihad’s overall agent market share. Although the current week’s share improved to 27.4%, the previous week’s share of 17.6% indicates a need for continued focus to sustain this positive momentum. Emirates holds 26.5% of Love Holidays’ bookings this week, suggesting strong competition. Strengthening the relationship with Love Holidays could help Etihad further align with this agent’s client base and regain ground from rivals like Emirates. Continuing to push Love Holidays to deliver Etihad's long term average share is valued at an additional £760k per annum on this O&D.

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